Thursday, June 10, 2010

Robustness to error

Nassim Nicholas Taleb - "The most severe mistake made in the interpretation of my Black Swan is to try to define an "Objective Black Swan" that would be invariant in the eyes of all observers." -Prologue xxiii

This phrase is a life saver. It says, 'Don't worry about the future'.

A Black Swan is an event with the following triplet characteristics: rarity, extreme impact and retrospective (though not prospective) predictability.

The Platonic fold is the explosive boundary where the Platonic mindset enters in contact with messy reality, where the gap between what you know and what you think you know becomes dangerously wide. It is here that the Black Swan is produced.

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